Presenter:
Rolf Moeckel and Ana Tsui Moreno, Technical University of Munich
Title:
Maintaining Mobility in Substantial Urban Growth Futures
Abstract:
The impacts of new transportation technologies, such as automated vehicles or taxi-on-demand services, are
largely unknown, although most transportation scientists agree that these technologies will significantly alter
how we travel as well as how our cities will be organized. While automated vehicles may provide additional
mobility to elderly and young travelers, effortless travel may induce additional trips and longer trips. Some
households may choose to move to the suburbs if automated vehicles provide almost effortless travel into the
city, while other households may decide to move back into the city as the necessity for parking is eliminated
with shared automated vehicles.
To study the effect of new transportation technologies in high-growth scenarios, an integrated landuse/
transportation model will be implemented for the Munich metropolitan area. For this purpose, the land-use
model SILO (www.silo.zone) will be integrated with the transportation model MATSim (www.matsim.org).
Both models work microscopically and handle households and persons individually. This microscopic linkage
between SILO and MATSim is expected to better represent actual constraints households face in housing search.
To capture population shifts and traffic flows both at the intercity and the intraregional level, the city of Munich
and the surrounding suburbs and hinterlands will be included in the study area. To delineate the study area,
commute data will be used to approximate the region that is closely connected to the city of Munich with regular
commute flows.
The integrated land-use/transportation modeling suite will be used to test alternative, and sometimes
dramatically different, future developments. Scenarios will include both massive population growth as well as
the introduction of new transportation technologies. Such scenario analyses will allow to assess the impact of
population growth on our transportation system. It will also be analyzed how new transportation technologies
may alleviate congestion. Initial model results and methodology are expected to be presented at the meeting.
Keywords:
Travel demand modeling, land use modeling, integrated modeling, scenario analyses, alternative
modes of transportation